Gold price prediction for Diwali week: What’s the gold rate outlook for October 20, 2025 week? Levels to watch out for
Gold price prediction in Diwali week: Gold prices are likely to trade range-bound in the Diwali week, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Here is his outlook for gold prices in the coming days:Gold and Silver continued to mark new all-time highs last week as well, only to lose strength on the last day. Safe haven buying was witnessed amid renewed US-China trade tensions and deepening geopolitical and economic uncertainties. Gold inched towards $4,400 level gaining more than 60% year-to-date, driven by safe-haven demand, expectations of further US interest rate cuts, strong ETF inflows, and robust central bank buying.Silver also soared, crossing $52 on COMEX — an all-time high — as acute global supply shortages and backwardation signalled severe tightness in the market. Domestic premiums surged, reflecting heightened volatility. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and fresh export controls on US software, while China expanded its rare earth export restrictions. Tensions escalated with reciprocal port fees and threats over Chinese oil imports from Russia.Amid a prolonged US government shutdown, key economic data releases may be delayed, amplifying market anxiety. Fed Chair Powell, at the NABE conference, indicated that future rate decisions would be data-dependent, acknowledging persistent labor market weakness and inflation risks. The IMF raised its global growth forecast but warned of headwinds from the trade war.However, on the other side of the story, President Trump quickly took a softer side, keeping the market unsure regarding the 100% tariffs on China, over the weekend ceasefire was on the side lines and attacks continued. In India, soaring bullion prices during Dhanteras led to a shift from jewellery to coins and bars, as gold reserves crossed $100 billion. MCX also revised margin requirements for Gold and Silver, effective October 14. Gold and Silver also amidst the signs of extreme elevated prices eased off from all time levels, where silver fell by more than 5% in a single day. Supply tightness continues in the market however, premiums in ETFs, physical continue to ease off weighing on domestic exchange prices as well. Comments from Fed officials and inflation data are scheduled this week, however US shut down effects could delay the same.
Gold Price Outlook:
Bias: Range boundGold price range: Rs 1,25,000 – 1,30,000(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
