Samvat 2082: Will NSE Nifty touch 30,000 before next Diwali? Here’s what experts say
As India steps into Samvat 2082, experts are optimistic that the stock markets are set for stronger and more stable growth, after a year of high volatility and marginal single digit returns.Analysts cited by ANI expect Dalal Street to emerge from its consolidation phase and enter a phase of steady, gradual growth, with double-digit gains supported by strong domestic fundamentals, easing inflation, policy reforms, and renewed interest from foreign investors.Ajay Bagga, banking and market expert, said the last year (Samvat 2081) was challenging due to global tensions, tariff uncertainties, and heavy foreign investor outflows, which reached nearly $15 billion.However, he offered a brighter outlook for Samvat 2082.“The new Samvat year is poised for a stronger, more stable performance than the last, with a gradual but sustained upside, driven primarily by domestic fundamentals. We project Nifty at 30,000 by the next Diwali. The BSE Sensex is expected to target levels around 95,000,” Bagga said.He said the market targets are backed by factors such as a revival in corporate earnings, strong macroeconomic performance, and active participation from domestic investors. Corporate earnings are expected to grow at around 12% CAGR over the coming years, with Nifty 50 earnings likely rising 14% by FY27.Bagga added that the RBI’s recent 100-basis-point rate cut, with another 25 bps likely soon, is expected to boost both consumption and capital spending. Government measures, including income tax relief, GST cuts for sectors like automobiles and FMCG, and continued support for manufacturing through PLI schemes, are also likely to provide additional momentum for growth.The expert further noted that fresh foreign investor inflows, the possibility of an Indo-US trade deal, and consistent domestic investments from mutual funds and retail investors are likely to create a solid foundation for market stability.Highlighting key sectors, Bagga suggested keeping a watch on banking and financials, automobiles, capital goods, infrastructure, and FMCG. He further suggested investors focus on large-cap stocks for stability, while keeping an eye on select mid and small-caps and IT opportunities.Nilesh Shah, MD of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, offered a cautious perspective, citing high valuations, single-digit earnings growth, and promoter selling as potential risks. He also noted that US tariffs have affected earnings and could lead to further foreign selling.“Last Samvat wasn’t exactly a blockbuster for the Nifty; it lagged most global markets. Fundamentals change over time. In the near to medium term, there is a tug of war between FPIs and Promoters on one side and DIIs and Retail investors on the other side,” Shah said.However, he added that domestic investors remain confident, supported by government measures such as income tax cuts of Rs 1 lakh crore, GST reductions of Rs 1.96 lakh crore, lower EMIs from interest rate cuts, and higher government employee pay.“If this money is spent on swadeshi goods and services, the earnings growth will be higher than market expectations,” Shah told ANI.Amisha Vora, chairperson and MD of PL Capital, said optimism is slowly returning to Indian markets after a tough year.“The stage now appears set for an earnings-led recovery,” she added, noting that growth momentum remains supported by the GST 2.0 rollout, income tax relief, and a supportive monetary policy.Vora expects India’s GDP to grow 6.8% in FY26, on the back of structural reforms and strong domestic liquidity.Experts say that this Samvat is a chance for investors to benefit from India’s next phase of growth, supported by rising earnings, stable macroeconomic conditions, and strong policy measures.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
