Gold rate outlook: Prices to stay choppy ahead of US data; Fed signals in focus as silver extends strong run

Gold prices are expected to stay choppy in the coming week as investors brace for a heavy line-up of US economic signals, including the jobs report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Analysts said the data flow and commentary from Fed officials will shape expectations around a potential December rate cut, PTI reported.Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services, said volatility is set to remain elevated. “The volatility is expected to remain high, but prices may find some support… Focus will be on the US economic data releases, which may give some clues on the health of the American economy & possibly some direction on the Fed’s rate outlook,” he said, quoted PTI.Weekly gains erasedOn MCX, gold futures for December delivery rose Rs 2,494 (2.06 per cent) over the week, supported by a weaker dollar, uncertainty around the 43-day US government shutdown and an expansion in the Fed’s money supply. But the metal reversed sharply on Friday, slipping Rs 3,190 (2.52 per cent) to close at Rs 1,23,561 per 10 grams as traders booked profits.“Gold prices pared some of the gains… weighed by hawkish commentary from some of the Fed officials and as traders trimmed bets for a December rate cut to near 40 per cent,” Mer added.Globally, Comex gold rose USD 84.4 (2.10 per cent) during the week, before tumbling USD 100.3 (2.39 per cent) on Friday to settle at USD 4,094.2 an ounce.Riya Singh, Research Analyst – Commodities and Currency, Emkay Global Financial Services, said renewed ETF inflows and softer US macro indicators kept gold supported earlier in the week. She noted that ETFs added 114,345 ounces in the last session, taking year-to-date purchases to 14 million ounces, a 17 per cent jump in holdings.“Gold extended its strong upward momentum… Weak jobs data, a fragile fiscal outlook and a soft dollar continued to attract safe-haven flows,” Singh said, adding the metal could test USD 4,300–4,385 per ounce if bullish momentum continues.Shutdown adds uncertaintyPrathamesh Mallya, DVP – Research (Non-Agri Commodities & Currencies) at Angel One, said the prolonged US government shutdown has created a data blackout. “Markets hope fresh data would show a slowing economy, giving the Fed room to cut rates in December. A host of factors will keep gold prices volatile in the weeks ahead,” he said.Silver steals the showSilver delivered the standout performance of the week, with MCX December futures posting a 5.61 per cent jump (Rs 8,290) and rallying more than 12 per cent in the four sessions until Thursday, driven by its addition to the US critical minerals list. However, it corrected sharply on Friday, sliding Rs 6,452 (3.97 per cent) to Rs 1,56,018 per kg.Comex silver rose USD 2.5 (5.3 per cent) for the week but ended Friday down USD 2.4 (4.67 per cent) at USD 50.68 an ounce.Mer said silver’s near-term momentum appears sideways, with resistance pegged at Rs 1,70,500 per kg.