Global copper market: China’s demand to slow down; US, India will emerge as key drivers

Copper demand in the United States and India is set to outpace China over the next ten years, even as growth slows in the world’s biggest consumer of the metal. While China will continue to lead the market, analysts say that other regions and factors are likely to play a bigger role in shaping global copper prices.Beijing’s industrial and infrastructure expansion has pushed copper prices from $1,500 per metric ton 25 years ago to above $10,000 today. But China is expected to reduce its rate of copper consumption and stockpiling, focusing more on maintaining existing infrastructure than building new projects. “China will reduce its rate of copper consumption and stockpiling. We are going back to old-fashioned drivers of copper, which is basically replacement cycles outside China,” Panmure Liberum analyst Tom Price told Reuters.Moves by the US and other countries to promote local manufacturing are expected to slow China’s export machine, reducing its demand for refined copper, estimated at around 15 million tons this year. At the same time, data centres supporting AI technology and upgrades to power grid infrastructure are likely to drive demand outside China. “China has built its infrastructure, including its power distribution grid. Its activity will drift to a lower level to match (its) requirement,” Price told Reuters. He forecasts China’s demand will be 6% lower in 2031 than in 2026. China is expected to account for 52% of global consumption of primary copper, around 27 million tons, down from 57% in 2026.In comparison, US copper demand is expected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2031, nearly 50% higher than in 2026, while India’s demand is forecast to rise above 1 million tons, more than 30% higher, Reuters reported.Analysts also point to trade policies influencing the market. US President Donald Trump’s 50% tariffs on copper pipes and wiring are expected to encourage local production. For China, this could mean losing a major market for its exports of copper pipe. Trade Data Monitor ranks the US as China’s fourth-biggest market for these products. Last year, the US imported 14.4 million tons of copper tubes and pipes from China, while in the first seven months of this year, imports were about 8 million tons.“China’s output of manufactured goods, particularly for export, is likely to slow down to some extent as a function of increasing pushback by countries in the West,” said Duncan Hobbs, research director at Concord Resources. Exports include copper wire for power grid infrastructure. In its last network-infrastructure review a decade ago, the US Department of Energy found that 70% of transmission lines were more than 25 years old.India is expanding its transmission infrastructure to support its goal of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based capacity by 2030. In Asia, excluding China, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects copper demand to jump 25% to more than 9.2 million tons between 2025 and 2030. For electric infrastructure, including power grids, data centres, and telecom networks, demand is forecast to rise 35% to 2.2 million tons, compared with 4% and 11% growth for China in the same categories.Grid improvements in the West mainly focus on modernising infrastructure. This is slower and less copper-intensive than the new builds China undertook. Robert Edwards, principal analyst at metals consultancy CRU, said China’s influence on the copper market has been declining for some years, although investment in electric vehicles, renewables, and its power grid delayed the shift. CRU expects China’s consumption of global mined and recycled copper to fall to 57% of 31.36 million tons in 2030, from 59% of 27.62 million tons this year. “Demand growth potential in China is limited. You should see more growth in the rest of the world,” Edwards told Reuters.Changing regional policies, infrastructure cycles, and geopolitical shifts mean producers, consumers, traders, and investors will need to adapt to a market with many different drivers.