Gold & silver outlook: Are precious metal prices set to hold steady amid dollar swings? Anand Rathi expert shares insights

Gold prices are likely to stay firm amid global uncertainty, with the dollar and rupee expected to trade in narrow ranges as tariff tensions and geopolitical risks keep markets volatile, Director of Commodities and Currencies at Anand Rathi, Naveen Mathur, said in an interview with ET.He noted that the dollar index, which touched a three-month high of 99.56 on October 9 before easing to 98.92, remains up about 1.28% week-on-week. The recent movement, Mathur said, was driven by a weaker euro following political shifts in France and a dovish stance from Japan, which pushed the yen lower. “I expect high volatility to continue, with the dollar index likely trading between 96–97 on the downside and 99–100 on the upside, though breaching 100 seems unlikely this week,” he added.According to Mathur, the ongoing US government shutdown and renewed tariff concerns with China are weighing on the dollar, even as other global currencies show weakness. “Political developments in Japan and France have influenced recent trends. The shutdown and trade uncertainties will keep the market volatile,” he said.The rupee, meanwhile, has been showing signs of stability. Mathur said the Reserve Bank of India appears to be intervening actively to keep the currency steady. “The central bank seems comfortable with the rupee trading around Rs 87–88 per dollar, where it can maintain some stability. I expect the rupee to move in a narrow band between Rs 87.50 and Rs 88.50, with limited depreciation beyond 88.50,” he explained, quoted ET.On bullion, Mathur said both gold and silver have gained strongly this year, supported by safe-haven demand and festive buying. “The ongoing uncertainty around trade tariffs, especially between the US and China, continues to support gold. If the dollar weakens slightly, it would further boost dollar-denominated commodities like gold,” he said. With the rupee unlikely to appreciate much, domestic gold prices should remain firm through the festive season.Silver prices, which recently broke past their 2011 highs, continue to reflect a tight supply scenario. “Silver has surpassed $50 per ounce internationally and touched around Rs 1,53,400 per kg on October 9 in India,” Mathur said. He added that global production has been running at a deficit for four to five years, and inventories at the London Metal Exchange have nearly halved since the start of 2025.“Both gold and silver have strong fundamental support from supply constraints, safe-haven demand, ETF inflows, and central-bank buying,” he said, though he expects short-term corrections as traders book profits.For traders, Mathur recommends a buy-on-dips strategy:Gold (MCX December contract):

Silver (MCX December contract):

Mathur also noted that both metals remain in a positive long-term trend. “Corrections are healthy and offer fresh buying opportunities for investors looking to ride the next leg of the rally,” he said.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)